To seize the initiative from Russia
Autumn brought a hitherto unprecedented increase of pressure on Russia in connection with its systematic violations of the international law, but that had little effect on the behavior of Moscow in terms of Ukraine; and it affected Moscow's intentions even less. The environmental disaster in the Crimea occupied by the Russian Federation as well as a number of exacerbations in the course of the war in the eastern part of Ukraine, attracted the attention of the international community, however, they did not force the Kremlin to retreat. On the contrary, the Ukrainian agenda at the recent UN General Assembly and UN Security Council, the debate around the resolutions on the Crimea and the introduction of the international peacekeeping forces in Donetsk and Luhansk Territories with Special Regime of Local Self-Government, the situation in the Sea of Azov demonstrate that the style of actions and the goals of Moscow in terms of Ukraine remain the same. And, as such, the following question looks quite reasonable: what pressure formats will the Kremlin resort to in the future? According to "DS" and the Center of Russia and the Occupied Territories Study, such formats may include escalation in the Sea of Azov, increase of pressure on the Ukrainian oligarchs, diplomatic and informational sabotage and, the last in the list but perhaps the first in terms of importance, active interference in the election process. The present second annual special research provides our viewpoint on the forms to be used for this and the ways of resistance. And now it comes out in two languages. We do this by setting a goal to make it easier for foreign embassies to dive into the Ukrainian information field and to remind the world community that the struggle for an independent and free Ukraine continues.
Just to remind you, the previous research covering the Occupied territories issues was published in October, 2017, under the title "Occupied Donbass: Economics, Demography, Groups of Influence. Strategies for Ukraine".
The issue of peace, which becomes the key one in the future presidential campaign in the context it is presented in policy statements of politicians, is artificial and false
The concept of peace of the main political players in Ukraine
PETRO POROSHENKO:
Deployment of a multinational operation under the auspices of the United Nations on the temporarily occupied territory of Donbass. The AFU (Armed Forces of Ukraine) to be located at the border with Russia.
ARSEN AVAKOV:
The adoption of the law on amnesty, the law on collaborators, the holding of local elections. Immediate reintegration on the entire territory of the uncontrolled Donbass will not succeed even with the participation of the UN peacekeepers - need to start with Gorlovka or Novoazovsky District separately. Peacekeepers are on the border of the settlement. Borders with the occupied territory are controlled by the "blue helmets" and the Ukrainian border guards. The Ukrainian judicial authorities get to this territory and elections under the Ukrainian law are conducted. It does not matter who wins this election. The main thing is to form a transitional administration on the basis of personalities elected within the Ukrainian law and representatives of the state power of Ukraine. A transitional joint patrol of the Ukrainian Interior Ministry forces with representatives of local territorial communities is possible. Then - the adoption of the law on amnesty, the law on collaborators, resolution of the transitional status of the occupied territories, reconstruction of the infrastructure and improvement of life quality of people who are in occupation.
YULIA TIMOSHENKO:
"Negotiations about peace" without specificity. After criticism, the rhetoric has changed: in order to bring peace back to Ukraine, negotiations in the Budapest format should be held and a strong army is needed. Bringing the UN peacekeepers on the terms of Ukraine can be the way to end the occupation as well.
VADIM RABINOVICH:
Peace in Donbass with the help of negotiations. "Stop the hatred", "we need to look for ways of reconciliation" - without mentioning Moscow. Donbass should be given a three-year transition period, during which these territories will receive a certain status within Ukraine - a presidential representative must be appointed as the head, his candidature will be agreed with the local residents.
ANATOLY GRITSENKO:
Negotiations should be held with his personal participation. He stated about direct contacts with Russia. Bringing the UN peacekeeping mission into the occupied territories, the creation of provisional authorities, as well as the introduction of a program aimed to return the control of enterprises. The peace plan is designed for three-five years. A temporary international administration functioning there before the election.
YURI BOYKO:
Kyiv should conduct direct negotiations with Moscow, Donetsk and Luhansk. Bringing of the peacekeepers. Adoption of laws on the special status of Donbass for three years for the resumption of peaceful life, the adoption of an amnesty law for those who did not commit serious crimes. Restoration of economic cooperation, control over the Ukrainian-Russian border by the Ukrainian border guards. And three years later, local elections are held there under the Ukrainian law.
OLEG LYASHKO:
It is extremely important to treat the residents of Donetsk and Luhansk Territories with Special Regime of Local Self-Government as citizens with equal rights: "When people are not paid their pensions, it only pushes them away and postpones the achievement of peace". The peacekeeping mission on the border between Ukraine and Russia is needed. The direct defense agreement with the United States is required. It is necessary to demand implementation of the Budapest Memorandum from the USA and the UK.
ANDREY SADOVYY:
The Donbass issue will not be resolved within the next year, two, three or even ten years. If the level of the economy in Ukraine goes up, we will have a strong army, and then the possibilities will be completely different. They should be afraid of Ukraine - then they will respect us. It is necessary to demand from the countries - guarantors of the Budapest Memorandum to fulfil their obligations. It is difficult to get better positions without active interference of the USA.
In general, only Poroshenko and Avakov have more or less elaborated plan. All the others say political slogans, but not specific, elaborated concepts.
The Russian Federation concept of peace
For today, Russia stands for Ukraine to sit down at the negotiating table with the separatists and make an agreement on re-elections. There is no more specifics and, apparently, will not be. The Russians do not see any sense in the negotiations until the end of the parliamentary campaign.
The main task for the Russians is to introduce de facto, and even better, de jure, dual management of these territories.
Two false concepts
In general, we can say that the resolution of the issue of peace in Donbass directly depends on the results of the elections.
If the pro-Russian candidate wins, there will be an attempt to introduce servitude management of these territories with further transformation of Ukraine into a confederation.
If the pro-European candidate wins, there will be no global breakthroughs in the peace issue obviously. The Russian Federation will continue to insist that this is an internal conflict of Ukraine and Kyiv should sit down at the negotiating table with representatives of so-called People's Republic of Donbass and People's Republic of Luhansk.
That is why it should be understood that new concepts of peace negotiations are unlikely to succeed until Russia is considered a strong state (or before the change of the ruling regime).
The issue of peace, which now becomes the key one in the future presidential campaign, in the context it is presented in policy statements of politicians, is artificial and false. In fact one concept leads to the collapse of Ukraine as a state, and the other one is almost impossible to implement in the current geopolitical conditions.
What do we have to do?
1. Do not delude yourself and get out of the warm bath of deception, in which politicians get themselves and the Ukrainian people.
2. It is necessary now not only to work with laws, but also to pass the laws that are focused on settlement of the peace process directly.
3. And also we have to think over the concept of economic incentives for a possible economic revival of the occupied territories.
What does it mean not to delude yourself?
The peace process will really start only after the Russian troops leave the territory of Ukraine. But already now it is necessary to take a number of steps in order to be ready for the beginning of the peace phase.
- The war will continue in one form or another for quite some time. Unfortunately, it is almost impossible to end the war in a short period without losing a large part of the sovereignty. People should begin to understand this, because another wave of frustration can be detrimental to the country.
- We need to make a serious breakthrough in strengthening the Ukrainian army, not in words, but in reality, as one of the main guarantors of Ukraine's independence. We made a qualitative leap in 2015-2017. Now we need to make a new leap, which is primarily connected to the re-equipment of the latest technology. Special attention should be paid to aviation, air defense and navy.
- The introduction of compulsory patriotic education in schools and the return to compulsory recruitment to the army for everyone (for up to six months) should be implemented. At the same time conscripts do not serve in the front line, but, in fact, they are taking the course of a young soldier, get patriotic education. This, among other things, will provide an opportunity to increase the number of contractors.
What laws are needed to be passed for the occupied Donbass and what should be the basis for the dialogue of reconciliation?
At the heart of the reconciliation dialogue, we must move from talking about accusations to the "concept of truth". The truth should become the basis for all further steps concerning these or those people.
- It is necessary to draw up an exhaustive list of those persons (categories of persons) who are to be convicted and those who are not subject to trial, but in the future will not have the right to occupy any office and run for any authorities. People of the occupied territories should know what awaits them after their release. Anyone who has given false information about himself should be punished very harshly and without the right to amnesty.
- Military criminals from Ukraine should know about the inevitability of punishment. Just as the Croats at one time handed their generals to Hague Tribunal, Ukraine must commit to do the same in the presence of real charges and facts from international structures.
- The Minsk agreements stipulate the possibility of creating police units in the so far occupied territories. Therefore, we need to pass a law on the municipal police, which will apply to the entire territory of Ukraine.
- The Minsk agreements stipulate the right of local authorities to consent to the appointment of heads of the prosecutor's office and courts. It is worth making the appropriate changes in the legislation, expanding these powers in all areas of Ukraine. And it is necessary to provide local authorities the right only to double veto for the candidate offered by Kyiv. Further, a prosecutor or judge is appointed without agreement (those candidates for whom the veto has been applied cannot be appointed to this area). At the same time, it is necessary to write down an exhaustive list of reasons why a candidate can be eligible.
What are the economic incentives for the occupied Donbass?
There is only Ukrainian legislation on the whole territory of Ukraine. No separate laws on those or other territories. Instead of the concept of a "special political status", we must turn to the concept of a "special economic status".
- Establishment of an international fund for the restoration of Donbass (both occupied and not occupied territories). 10-15 large infrastructure projects are identified, under which donor money is sought. Projects should be common for both territories to show how roads are being built to uncontrolled territories, how hospitals are built, where people could come from neighboring areas, etc.
- The establishment of technoparks should take place, the territory of which will spread to neighboring areas after the unification.